By:
ALIYU DAHIRU MOHAMMED (Pictured)
1.0 INTRODUCTION
For the past few decades the hotly debating topic of discussing by not only sciencetists but the economists as well is about climate change, as it affects the major economic variables unprecedently and touches the life of common man across global regions. It has led to the establishment of many governmental and non-governmental organizations to cater for the challenges and address the issues for the survival of human species and other resources. Climate change presents a unique challenge for economics: it is the greatest example of market failure we have ever seen. The economic analysis must be global, deal with long time horizons, have the economics of risk and uncertainty at its core, and examine the possibility of major, non-marginal change. Analyzing climate change requires ideas and techniques from most of the important areas of economics, including many recent advances.1
An overwhelming body of scientific evidence paints a clear picture: climate change is happening, is a serious global threat, and it demands an urgent global response it is caused in large part by human activity, and it will have many serious and potentially damaging effects in the decades ahead. Scientists have confirmed that the earth is warming, and that greenhouse gas emissions from cars, power plants and other manmade sources—rather than natural variations in climate—are the primary cause. Due largely to the combustion of fossil fuels, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, are at a level unequaled for more than 400,000 years.2 As a result, an enhanced greenhouse effect is trapping more of the sun’s heat near the earth’s surface and gradually pushing the planet’s climate system into uncharted territory.
According to the popular Stern Review on the” Economics of Climate change”, Climate change will affect the basic elements of life for people around the world –access to water, food production, health, and the environment. Hundreds of millions of people could suffer hunger, water shortages and coastal flooding as the world warms.
Using the results from formal economic models, the Stern Review estimates that if we don’t act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year, now and forever. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more. In contrast, the costs of action – reducing greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst impacts of climate change – can be limited to around 1% of global GDP each year.
The United Nations panel, which groups 2,500 scientists from more than 130 nations, predicted more droughts, heat waves and a slow gain in sea levels that could continue for more than 1,000 years even if greenhouse gas emissions were capped. The panel’s report predicts a “best estimate” that temperatures would rise by between 1.8 and 4.0 Celsius (3.2 and 7.8 Fahrenheit) in the 21st century3.
2.0 MEANING OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Encyclopedia Britannica Define Climate as “conditions of the atmosphere at a particular location over a long period of time; it is the long-term summation of the atmospheric elements (and their variations) that, over short time periods, constitute weather. These elements are solar radiation, temperature, humidity, precipitation (type, frequency, and amount), atmospheric pressure, and wind (speed and direction). Climate” refers to the average weather in terms of the mean and its variability over a certain time-span and a certain area. Classical climatology provides a classification and description of the various climate regimes found on Earth. Climate varies from place to place, depending on latitude, distance to the sea, vegetation, presence or absence of mountains or other geographical factors. Climate varies also in time; from season to season, year to year, decade to decade or on much longer time-scales, such as the Ice Ages. Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer). Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcing or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.4
According Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, defines “climate change” as: “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”. The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between “climate change” attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition, and “climate variability” attributable to natural causes.5
The growth, movement and decay of weather systems depend also on the vertical structure of the atmosphere, the influence of the underlying land and sea and many other factors not directly experienced by human beings. Climate is determined by the atmospheric circulation and by its interactions with the large-scale ocean currents and the land with its features such as albedo, vegetation and soil moisture. The climate of the Earth as a whole depends on factors that influence the radiative balance, such as for example, the atmospheric composition, solar radiation or volcanic eruptions. To understand the climate of our planet Earth and its variations and to understand and possibly predict the changes of the climate brought about by human activities, one cannot ignore any of these many factors and components that determine the climate. We must understand the climate system, the complicated system consisting of various components, including the dynamics and composition of the atmosphere, the ocean, the ice and snow cover, the land surface and its features, the many mutual interactions between them, and the large variety of physical, chemical and biological processes taking place in and among these components
The most recently released report on climate change by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), provides the most conclusive evidence to date that human activities are causing dangerous climate change” 6
For those who are still trying to determine responsibility for global warming, this new UN report on Climate Change is a sciencetific smoking gun”. 7
3.0 SOURCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Human economic activity is causing the release of certain pollutants (atmospheric trace gases-mainly carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and CFSs) which tend to block the emission of heat from the earth surface. These gases are transparent to short-wave radiation from the sun, but absorb long-wave radiation from the earth, thus tapping heat. In theory, increasing their concentration in the atmosphere causes the earth to warm-like green house.
Scientists and government officials in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the most authoritative group on global warming, agreed it was “very likely” that human activity were the main cause of warming in the past 50 years.8Unlike the ozone effect (in the upper atmosphere) the green house effect operates mostly in the lower atmosphere. (Hardy 2003, p .11).
3. 1 Green house effect
An overwhelming body of scientific evidence indicates that the Earth’s climate is rapidly changing, predominantly as a result of increases in greenhouse gases caused by human activities.
Human activities are changing the composition of the atmosphere and its properties. Since pre-industrial times (around 1750), carbon dioxide concentrations have increased by just over one third from 280 parts per million (ppm) to 380 ppm today, predominantly as a result of burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and other changes in land-use.9This has been accompanied by rising concentrations of other greenhouse gases, particularly methane and nitrous oxide.
There is compelling evidence that the rising levels of greenhouse gases will have a warming effect on the climate through increasing the amount of infrared radiation (heat energy) trapped by the atmosphere: “the greenhouse effect”. In total, the warming effect due to all (Kyoto) greenhouse gases emitted by human activities is now equivalent to around 430 ppm of carbon dioxide (hereafter, CO2 equivalent or CO2e) and rising at around 2.3 ppm per year. Current levels of greenhouse gases are higher now than at any time in at least the past 650,000 years.10
Historically, greenhouse gas concentrations in the Earth’s atmosphere have undergone natural changes over time and those changes have been closely followed by changes in climate. Warmer periods were associated with higher atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and cooler periods with lower greenhouse gas concentrations. However, those changes were part of natural cycles and occurred over periods of tens of thousands to millions of years. Recent human-induced changes in atmospheric chemistry have occurred over decades (Ramanathan 1988).
Water vapor traps heat in the atmosphere and makes the greatest contribution to the greenhouse effect. Its level in the atmosphere is not directly the result of human activities.
However, because warmer air can hold more water vapor, an increase in the Earth’s temperature resulting from other greenhouse gases produces a “positive feedback,” that is, more warming means more water vapor in the atmosphere, which in turn contributes to further warming.
Carbon dioxide is a natural component of the atmosphere and is very biologically reactive. It can be reduced to organic carbon biomass through photosynthetic uptake in plants and, through biological oxidation (respiration), converted back to gaseous CO2 and returned to the atmosphere.
Carbon dioxide is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. The global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased from a pre-industrial value of about 280 ppm to 379 ppm3 in 2005. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide in 2005 exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years (180 to 300 ppm) as determined from ice cores. The annual carbon dioxide concentration growth-rate was larger during the last 10 years (1995 – 2005 average: 1.9 ppm per year), (IPCC 2007)
Major natural sources to the atmosphere are animal respiration, microbial breakdown of dead organic matter and soil carbon, and ocean to atmosphere exchange (flux). These natural cycles maintained the atmospheric concentration of CO2 at about 280 ± 10 ppmv (parts per million by volume) for several thousand years prior to industrialization in the mid-nineteenth century. During the past 150 years, and especially during the last few decades, humans greatly increased the concentration of atmospheric CO2. Globally, more than 80% of human CO2 emissions come from transportation and industrial sources. The remaining 20% comes primarily from deforestation and biomass burning. Forest stores about 100 tons of carbon per acre and about half the world’s forest was destroyed in the last half of the twentieth century. Carbonate minerals used in cement production also release CO2 to the atmosphere. These sources altogether contribute 6.5 billion tons or gigatons of carbon (GtC) to the atmosphere each year.
The largest emitters of CO2 are the United States, China, and the Russian Federation. Furthermore, the rate of addition to the atmosphere from these sources exceeds the rate of loss to major CO2 sinks by about3.3 GtC per year.
Methane gas (CH4) is produced by the microbial breakdown of organic matter in the absence of oxygen. Natural wetland soils, swamps, and some coastal sediments release significant quantities of CH4 to the atmosphere. In the atmosphere it can combine with hydroxyl radicals (OH−) to form carbon monoxide (CO). Its atmospheric concentration has increased by 150% since 1750 and is increasing rapidly by about 1.1% per year. About half the current methane emissions are from anthropogenic (human produced) sources. These sources include livestock production (incomplete digestion of food), wetland rice cultivation, solid waste landfills, and coal, oil, and gas production. However, global emission rates appear variable and are difficult to quantify exactly (Houghton et al. 2001).
Nitrous oxide (N2O) originates from the microbial breakdown of agricultural fertilizers, fossil-fuel combustion, and biomass burning. Coal combustion is a major contributor of N2O to the atmosphere.N2O has a long atmospheric lifetime (170 years). Its atmospheric lifetime (170 years). Its atmospheric concentration has increased since the pre-industrial era by 16%, and it continues to increase by about 0.25% per year. It makes a significant contribution to the overall global warming.
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are a relatively inert class of manufactured industrial compounds containing carbon, fluorine, and chlorine atoms. They are used as coolants in refrigerators and air conditioners, and in foam insulation, aerosol sprays, and industrial cleaning solvents. These compounds escape to the atmosphere where they destroy the stratospheric ozone layer that shields the Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation. Their role in ozone depletion led to the first comprehensive international environmental treaty – the Montreal Protocol – to phase out the use of chlorofluorocarbons. However, CFCs and HCFCs are also greenhouse gases. The atmospheric concentration of CFCs has increased rapidly since the 1960s. Although they are involved in the destruction of the stratospheric ozone layer which leads to some cooling, they still make an overall positive contribution to greenhouse warming11
1 Tropospheric ozone (O3) – motor vehicle emissions are the major source of this greenhouse gas. On clear warm days with a stable atmosphere, vehicle combustion hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides undergo a photochemical reaction to produce a hazy air pollution condition (smog) with high concentrations of O3. The atmospheric concentration increased an estimated 20 to 50% during the twentieth century and continues to increase at about 1% per year (Beardsley 1992). In the atmosphere, chemical reaction with hydroxyl radicals OH− results in loss of O3; however, as a result of other reactions, increasing atmospheric CO2 will probably decrease this removal process. Globally, the degree of warming due to O3 is not well known, but believed to be on the order of 15% of the total warming. Tropospheric ozone (bad ozone) is not to be confused with the natural stratospheric ozone layer (good ozone) that protects the Earth from excess damaging ultraviolet radiation (Hardy 2003, p.19).
Other greenhouse gases in total account for approximately 9% the total net warming. These include carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) – both largely from fossil-fuel and biomass combustion. Black carbon (soot), from the incomplete combustion of fossil fuel, may contribute substantially to greenhouse warming, at least on a regional scale (Chameides and Bergin 2002).
6%
4.0 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Most of the consequences of global warming would result from one of three physical changes in rainfall; sea level rise, higher local temperatures, or changes in rainfall patterns, (Titus 1990).Here we discussed the most serious impacts of climate change. The most widely impacts are on agricultural change coastal resource change; effects on human health; energy sector ;loss of wetlands salination of land coastal erosion and land loss due to risen sea level; Forestry impacts such as increased die-back. Others include increasing Water resources scarcity and change on natural ecosystem and damage on town and harboring airports among others. For instance, the global reinsurer Munich Re (2001) observes that since the 1950s there has been a threefold increase in major natural disasters, an eightfold increase in losses from such events, and a fifteen-fold increase in the loss carried by insurers. The peak year was 1995, at $190 billion or 0.7 percent of global GDP. (Smith, Klein and Huq, 2003, P.54,)
4.1 CLIMATE CHANGE ON FRESH WATER SYSTEMS
Water is an essential resource for all life and a requirement for good health and sanitation. It is a critical input for almost all production and essential for sustainable growth and poverty reduction.12 The location of water around the world is a critical determinant of livelihoods. Globally, around 70% of all freshwater supply is used for irrigating crops and providing food. 22% is used for manufacturing and energy (cooling power stations and producing hydro-electric power), while only 8% is used directly by households and businesses for drinking, sanitation, and recreation.13
Differences in water availability between regions will become increasingly pronounced. Areas that are already relatively dry, such as the Mediterranean basin and parts of Southern Africa and South America, are likely to experience further decreases in water availability, for example several (but not all) climate models predict up to 30% decrease in annual runoff in these regions for a 2°C global temperature rise and 40 – 50% for 4°C.14 In contrast, South Asia and parts of Northern Europe and Russia are likely to experience increases in water availability (runoff), for example a 10 – 20% increase for a 2°C temperature rise and slightly greater increases for 4°C, according to several climate models.
These changes in the annual volume of water each region receives mask another critical element of climate change – its impact on year-to-year and seasonal variability. An increase in annual river flows is not necessarily beneficial, particularly in highly seasonal climates, because: (1) there may not be sufficient storage to hold the extra water for use during the dry season and (2) rivers may flood more frequently. In dry regions, where runoff one-year-in-ten can be less than 20% of the average annual amount, understanding the impacts of climate change on variability of water supplies is perhaps even more crucial. One recent study from the Hadley Centre predicts that the proportion of land area experiencing severe droughts at any one time will increase from around 10% today to 40% for a warming of 3 to 4°C, and the proportion of land area experiencing extreme droughts will increase from 3% to 30%.15 In Southern Europe, serious droughts may occur every 10 years with a 3°C rise in global temperatures instead of every 100 years if today’s climate persisted.
Around one-third of today’s global population live in countries experiencing moderate to high water stress, and 1.1 billion people lack access to safe water. Water stress is a useful indicator of water availability but does not necessarily reflect access to safe water. Even without climate change, population growth by itself may result in several billion more people living in areas of more limited water availability.
The effects of rising temperatures against a background of a growing population are likely to cause changes in the water status of billions of people. According to one study, temperature rises of 2°C will result in 1 – 4 billion people experiencing growing water shortages, predominantly in Africa, the Middle East, Southern Europe, and parts of South and Central America16 In these regions, water management is already crucial for their growth and development. Considerably more effort and expense will be required on top of existing practices to meet people’s demand for water. At the same time, 1 – 5 billion people, mostly in South and East Asia, may receive more water.17 However, much of the extra water will come during the wet season and will only be useful for alleviating shortages in the dry season if storage could be created (at a cost). The additional water could also give rise to more serious flooding during the wet season.
Climate-induced changes in precipitation, surface runoff, and soil moisture will probably have profound impacts on natural systems and human population. Life on land, in streams, and in lakes depends on the availability of fresh water. Surface and ground water source supply water to humans for domestic use, agricultural irrigation, industry, transportation, recreation, waste disposal, and hydroelectric power generation. Human settlements have been, and continue to be, linked closely to the availability of freshwater. (Smith and Tirpak, 1990, p.281)
Because of the basic importance of water to living systems, changes in water availability represent one of the most serious potential consequences of green house warming. Global warming could create new challenges for areas already facing water supply problems. Warming will accelerate oceanic evaporation and increase overall global average precipitation. Model studies suggest that in many regions the combination of increased temperature and evaporation together with decreased precipitation will lead to severe water shortages. Even small increases in temperature, when coupled with changing precipitation, can lead to rather large changes in surface runoff. With a doubling of CO2, predicted regional changes in precipitation are on the order of plus or minus 20%, while changes in runoff and soil moisture are on the order of plus or minus 50 %( Scheineider et al.1990).
In Europe a doubling of CO2 would probably result in decreases in runoff in the Mediterranean region (Giorgi and Hewitson 2001).In fact this predicted pattern might already be taking place. Lake Iliki, situated northeast of Athens, Greece, suffered nearly a decade of drought in the 1990s, which left the lake level low and threatened the water supply of four million people (Hardy 2003, p. 80).
Climate change in many countries will add to existing water shortages. The IPCC (1996) examined potential changes in per capita water availability between 1990 and 2050 in 21 countries four using climate-change scenarios. Water demand will increase even without climate change, and countries with high population growth rates (e.g. Kenya and Madagascar) will experience sharp declines in per capita water availability. Africa is particularly vulnerable to factors that affect water supply. Per capita availability has diminished by 75% during the past 50 years. In Sub-Saharan Africa, river flows have declined in the past 20 years and climate change may accelerate this decline (McCarthy et al. 2001).
4.2 THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE
Food production will be particularly sensitive to climate change, because crop yields depend in large part on prevailing climate conditions (temperature and rainfall patterns). Agriculture currently accounts for 24%of world output, employs 22% of the global population, and occupies 40% of the land area. 75% of the poorest people in the world (the one billion people who live on less than $1 a day) live in rural areas and rely on agriculture for their livelihood.
While agriculture in higher-latitude developed countries is likely to benefit from moderate warming (2 –3°C), even small amounts of climate change in tropical regions will lead to declines in yield. Here crops are already close to critical temperature thresholds36 and many countries have limited capacity to make economy-wide adjustments to farming patterns. The impacts will be strongest across Africa and Western Asia (including the Middle East), where yields of the predominant regional crops may fall by 25 – 35% (weak carbon fertilization) or 15 – 20% (strong carbon fertilization) once temperatures reach 3 or 4°C. Maize-based agriculture in tropical regions, such as parts of Africa and Central America, is likely to suffer substantial declines, because maize has a different physiology to most crops and is less responsive to the direct effects of rising carbon dioxide.18
Productive agriculture is essential to feed a growing population and sustain modern civilization. Climate affects agriculture, a fact well known to every farmer. Year-to-year variations in harvest are largely due to variations in temperature and precipitation that can make difference between bountiful “bumper” crops and economic ruin. Climate change will have serious impacts on world food supplies, especially in the less-developed countries. Global warming will probably shift growing areas by several hundred kilometers per degree increase in temperature, increasing agricultural productivity in some areas of the world, while drastically decreasing it in others. In the developed countries of the temperate Zone, climate change will probably have little negative impact on agricultural production (Eckerstern et al.2001).
In tropical and subtropical areas, predicted impacts on agriculture are mostly negative. For example, in the Mediterranean region of Southern Europe, grain yields will probably decrease as an increased for irrigation places added demands on areas already suffering from acute water shortages. Water stressed and marginal agricultural regions (e.g. Sub-Saharan Africa, Northern Mexico, the Middle East and Australia) may be pushed completely out of production by climate change (Hardy, 2003, p.126).
4.4 THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Climate change will have wide ranging impacts on society and infrastructure that supports civilization. Global warming could impact not only on agriculture but also on human settlement ,energy use, transportation, industry, environmental quality and other aspects of infrastructure that affect our quality of life (IPCC 1990).Numerous examples from history illustrate how the success of civilization and human welfare is intimately linked to climate (Gore 1993).
The effects of energy use on climate change according to United Nation Framework convention (UNFCC 2002) calls for “stabilization of green house gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with climate system…”
Population and economic growth will lead to future increases in energy demand in most countries, but impacts of climate change on supply and demand will vary greatly by region. For example in the United kingdom and Russia a 2 to 2.2 0C warming by 2050 will decrease winter space-heating needs, this decreasing fossil-fuel demand by 5 to 10% and electricity demand by 1 to 30% (Moreno and Skea 1996).
Climate change will also affect biomass (trees or other vegetation) energy, which currently provides 11% of global energy (IEA 1998).In sub-Saharan Africa in 1990, biomass fuel provided 53% of the total energy. If climate change as expected, decreases rainfall in North Central Africa, forests will suffer from drought and fuel wood will become scarce. The poor will be the most vulnerable to reductions in fuel wood supply (Hardy 2003, p158).
4.5 HUMAN SETTLEMENTS
Climate Change will alter regional agricultural and industrial potential and could trigger large-scale migrations and redistributions of people. Such population displacements can result in serious socioeconomic disruptions, negative health impacts, and increased human suffering (similar to the mass movement of war related refugees).The life style of most human populations is adapted to a very narrow range of climatic conditions. Human settlements generally concentrate in areas of high industrial or agricultural, potential, that is hospitable climates, near coastlines, in river and lake basins, or close to major transportation routes.
Living pattern and technologies of particular populations have evolved to cope with occasional storms or disasters or slow natural climate change, but not with rapid climate change. A more rapid desertification, overgrazing and detrimental land use are examples of these as they even become global crisis.(Hardy,2003,pp161).In Sub-Saharan Africa, millions suffer from frequent drought related crop failures.
Climate change, according to most scenarios will place added demands on urban infrastructures. Urban populations in much of the world are already experiencing explosive growth. Climate change could accelerate urbanization, as people migrate away from low-lying coastal to interior areas or from drought stricken farms to cities (IPCC 1990).Unabated sea level rise will have devastating effect for densely populated river delta areas in Egypt, India, Bangladesh and elsewhere. Inhabitants will need to migrate to mainland interior to escape flooding. For example, a 1-m sea-level rise would seriously affect nearly a hundred million people along coast of China alone (Han 1989).
4.6 EFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HUMAN HEALTH
One of the most dangerous impacts of changing climate is the way it will affect human health. Extreme heat can kill humans, but also virtually every aspect of predicted climate change has implication for human health. Changes in temperature and precipitation, sea level, fisheries, agriculture, natural ecosystems, and air quality will all directly or indirectly affect human morbidity or mortality. The incidence and severity of many health problems increase with increasing temperature. As the temperature increase, the body expends added energy to keep cool. The most immediate consequence, if the body’s temperature rises above 41 0C, is heat stroke. This results to fever, rapid pulse and dry skin (Hardy, 2003, p.172).
Recent report by IPCC 2007, warns that climate change will have a significant impact on the health of everyone. This means more deaths from heat stress can be expected. Heat wave will become much frequent, rather more intense, and they will be impinging on an ageing population”.19
Global warming represents anew stimulus to the spread of infectious diseases (Last 1997).According to Jonathan Patz of the Johns Hopinkins School of hygiene and Public Health, “The spread of infectious diseases will be the most important public health problem related to climate change.” Malaria, one of the most serious global health problems, claims millions of lives each year. Its distribution is sensitive to climate conditions. Mostly affecting developing nations but its spread also is predicted to hit the developed nations within decades (Martin and Lefebvre 1995).
A recent United Nations report blamed climate change, along with worsening air and water quality and poor disposal of solid waste, for an increase in malaria, cholera and lower respiratory tract infections in African societies. Africans also are suffering from the effects of reduced crop yields and decreased availability of water. 20The U.N. report on Africa provides an early glimpse of some of the ways in which scientists say climate change will affect people’s health in the decades to come, no matter where they live. Climate change can affect human health directly (for example, because of extreme temperatures and heat waves) and indirectly (for example, by contributing to the spread of infectious disease or threatening the availability and quality of food and water). The elderly, the infants and the poor will be especially at risk.21
Air pollution, an exacerbating factor for pulmory health conditions such as asthma and cardio respiratory disorders, will probably increase as result of climate change. Increased energy demand will add combustion .This will increase emissions of particulates (a cause for respiratory problems), and sulfur dioxide (acid rain).Each year about 700,000 deaths world-wide result from air pollution (Hardy, 2003, p.181). World health organization has ranked air pollution as one of the top 10 causes of disability. The recent flooding in Malaysia and Indonesia has claimed the lives of many and causes spread of diseases and loss of property worth million dollars (The Star, 11, 2007).
The direct and indirect impacts of climate change on human health do constitute a hazard to human population health, especially in developing countries in the tropics and subtropics; these impacts have considerable potential to cause significant loss of life, affect communities, and increase health-care costs and lost work days. Model projections indicate that the geographical zone of potential malaria transmission would expand in response to global mean temperature increases at the upper part of the IPCC-projected range (3-5°C by 2100), increasing the affected proportion of the world’s population from approximately 45% to approximately 60% by the latter half of the next century.
4.8 EFFECTS ON ECOSYSTEMS
Climate change holds the potential of inflicting severe damage on the ecosystems that support all life, from hazards to coral reefs due to warmer and more acidic ocean waters to threats to polar bears because of declines in sea ice. Ecosystems around the world already are reacting to a warming world. For example, one study found that 130 species, including both plants and animals, have responded to earlier spring warming over the last 30 years. These organisms have changed their timing of flowering, migration and other spring activities. The changes occurred regardless of regional difference and were linked directly to enhance greenhouse warming.22
Researchers also have established that climate change is driving some species to extinction. For instance, in the past 20 years dozens of species of mountain frogs in Central America have disappeared because of a disease that formerly did not occur where they live. In 2006, a paper in the journal Nature revealed that the disease-causing organism, a fungus, has spread to higher elevations as a result of human-induced climate change.23
5.0 REMEDIAL MEASURES
The damage pollution is causing is vast and its proliferation fast.(Hassan,2006,p.351).The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that are causing global warming come from a wide range of sources, including cars and trucks, power plants, farms, and more .Because there are so many sources of these gases, there are also many options for reducing emissions,
Broadly speaking there is two way to combat the impact of Climate change vis-a-vi: mitigation and adaptation. Scientists have proffered solutions to reduce the impact of climate change while economists evaluate the solutions based on cost and benefits. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change makes clear that cost effectiveness is an important criterion to be used (among others) in formulating and implementing climate policies. As stated in Article 3.3 of the convention “…taking into account that policies and measures to deal with climate change should be cost-effective so as to ensure that global benefits at the lowest possible cost (UNFCC, 1992).
The technological and economic potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is large enough to hold annual global greenhouse gas emissions to levels close to or even below those of 2000 by 2010 and even lower by 2020.(IPCC,2001).There are several possible approaches to reduce or mitigate human-induced climate change. These are discussed under the following headings:
5.1 Capture or sequester carbon Emissions
If we could reduce CO2 emissions at the source, we could eliminate much of the green house warming potential, but this is easier said than done. This might be due to environmental and safety concern likes acidifications of the seawater when the CO2 is dissolved. Leaking CO2 also, could in high enough concentrations, suffocate nearby animal and human populations (Hardy, 2003, p.188).
5.2 Reduce Global Warming or its Effects by Geoengineering
Many proposed technical solutions to deal with human-induced warming fall under the heading of “earth systems engineering and management” or geoengineering,”that is, large scale schemes to manipulate the Earth’s climate and mitigate the effects of greenhouse warming. (Hardy,2003,p189)
5.3 Convert to carbon-free and renewable energy technologies
Technologies are available today to produce electric power and heat more efficiently using both fossil fuels and renewable energy. Power plants using the Integrated Gasification and Combined Cycle (IGCC) process, for example, deliver efficiency gains along with reductions in air pollution by converting coal into a cleaner-burning gas. Additional efficiency gains can come from advanced technologies for other fuel sources in power plants, including natural gas and biomass.
Renewable energy harnesses the power of the wind, the sun, water, tides and other forces to produce electric power. Agricultural “biomass” products also can be used to generate electricity and heat when combusted with coal. Renewable offer the potential to generate electricity without producing greenhouse gases—or producing very little when compared to traditional energy sources.
5.4 Conserve energy and Use it more efficiently
None of the nonfossil energy sources are currently available in the quantity necessary to totally replace fossil fuel. Improving energy efficiency, that is, the amount of energy generated per greenhouse gas emitted, still represents the most viable option for reducing GHG emissions over the next few decades (Fulkerson et al.1989). Improving energy efficiency will help delay greenhouse warming while alternative fuel sources are implemented.
In the transportation sector, several alternatives to gasoline-guzzling vehicles are available. Walking, bicycling, carpooling, or using mass transit (bus or train) can greatly increase efficiency by decreasing the quantity of CO2 emitted per passenger mile. Conserving solar energy is another potential way of reducing GHG.
One amazing thing is that a comment made on potentiality of energy as…”whole world in a half a year uses the same amount of energy as the solar energy that hits Australia in one summer day”.24
5.5 Carbon Markets
This is new emission trading scheme that is seen as a powerful way to promote cost-effective reductions in emissions. (Stern Review,2006) .To reduce carbon emissions tradable energy (TEQ)can be used which means every time you buy petrol , pay electric bill or book for a flight a certain units equivalence to that amount of energy would be deducted your (TEQ)account.
Carbon markets in rich countries are already beginning to deliver flows of finance to support low-carbon development, including through the Clean Development Mechanism. A transformation of these flows is now required to support action on the scale required.
According to Stern review on climate change, for effective response to climate change carbon must be priced, implemented through tax, trading or regulation. Action on climate change will also create significant business opportunities, as new markets are created in low-carbon energy technologies and other low-carbon
goods and services. These markets could grow to be worth hundreds of billions of dollars each year, and employment in these sectors will expand accordingly. (Stern Review 2006)
5.6 Adapt to Climate Change
Even if GHG emissions were drastically reduced today, the Earth’s climate would probably continue to warn for some time. Regardless of the rate of fossil-fuel reserves(about 4000 GtC) are burned,CO2 will reach about 1,000 ppmv and the Earth will be warmed by >50C by the end of the millennium (Lenton and Cannell 2002).Hence some scientists and politicians argue that we must prepare to adapt to the inevitable climate change. Adaptation can be effective, especially if the value of the resulting benefit is greater than the cost of the adaptation.
5.7 Taking Action
Many actions can be taken that would greatly reduce GHG emissions and or reduce the impacts of greenhouse warming. To avoid the worst effects, scientists say we will need to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere; that means reducing emissions of these gases by about 50 to 80 percent. It is a major challenge that will require unprecedented cooperation and participation across the globe.25These actions can be taken globally, nationally and individually.
Individual countries can choose from a large set of possible policy instruments to limit domestic GHG emissions. These include traditional regulatory mechanisms such as technology mandates and performance standards. They also include “market-based” instruments such as carbon taxes, energy taxes, tradable emissions permits, and subsidies to clean technologies. They also include various voluntary agreements between industries and regulators. A group of countries that wishes to limit its collective GHG emissions can agree to implement some of these policies in a co-ordinated fashion. (IPCC 2001)In Australia for instance, to cut gas emission by 30% by 2030, the government engage in the construction of a $40billion on electricity generation only.26
6.0 CONCLUSION
Climate change affects the basic elements of life for people around the world –access to water, food production, health, and the environment. Hundreds of millions of people could suffer hunger, water shortages and coastal flooding as the world warms. It is mainly caused by human beings-an externality, a clear picture of market failure.
Reducing the impact of climate change requires effort at individual, local level, national and global level. The impacts of climate change or rather the damage would be more on poor countries as they do not have enough resources to mitigate or adapt to climate change. Thus this requires transfer of wealth from the developed countries (the major contributors to global warming) to poor countries son as to achieve global target and save the life of many especially future generations.
If actions are not taken soon to reduce the impacts of human-induced climate change, the consequences could be far reaching. Even though we may be uncertain of the magnitude of climate change or its specific effects, impacts on human society could range from slight to catastrophic. Economists and scientists are daily calling for precautionary principle “or more simply stated: better safe than sorry.
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Appendix 1. Modeling Climate Change (From Emission to Impact)
Appendix 2. The Top 10 Emitting Countries of CO2
Source, Stern Review 2006
Appendix
1 stern review on Economics of Climate Change(2006) which the Prime minister describe as the most important document for the future organized by his government
2 This brief is part of a series called Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change, published by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States
3 Recent report released by (IPCC 2007)on climate change
4 .see IPCC report 2001
5 UNFCC 2001
6 said Camilla Toulmin, head of the international institute for environment and development, a London based research group.
7a comment on IPCC report (2007) by U.S Democratic Congressman Edward Markey
8 Delegates at the IPCC, 2007 said. In IPCC language, “very likely” means at least 90 percent probability and is the strongest link to human activities since the IPCC was set up in 1988. The previous study in 2001 said a link was “likely”, or 66 percent probable-.(Reuters.com)
9 IPCC (2001)
10 Ibid
11 . (IPCC 2000).
12In Stern review, Grey and Sadoff (2006)
13 Ibid
14 Ibid, Arnell (2006a) analysis on water system
15 Burke et al. (2006) using the Hadley Centre climate model (HadCM3).
16In Stern review ,Warren et al. (2006) have prepared these results, based on the original analysis of Arnell (2004) for the 2080s
17 Ibid
18 Ibid
19 Explained Prof. Tony McMichael of the Australian National University’s National centre for epidemiology and population health. (The star 11 Feb, 2007p. F39).
20 . Economic Commission for Africa. 2001. State of the Environment in Africa. http://www.uneca.org/wssd/Env_Rprt.PDF.
21. See, for example, Human Health & Global Climate Change:
A Review of Potential Impacts in the United States, by John
M. Balbu, and Mark L. Wilson, Pew Center on Global Climate
Change, 28 ,December 2000.
22 Root, T. L., D. P. MacMynowski, M. D. Mastrandrea, and S.
H. Schneider. “Human-modified temperatures induce species
changes: Joint attribution”. Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences 102: 7465-7469
23. Pounds, J. A. and 13 others. 2006. “Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming”. Nature, 439:161.
24 a comment by Prof Ian Lowen of the Australian Conservation Foundation that the (The star 11 feb, 2007,p. F39).
25 www.pewclimate.org (pew center for global climate change)
26 http://www.bbc.com/environment
Aliyu Dahir Mohammed
Masters Candidate
Faculty of Economics and Management Sciences
International Islamic Unversity Malaysia.
